IMF projects a 7.7 per cent rebound for the UAE economy in 2027 after a 3.9 per cent contraction
13 October 2026
The International Monetary Fund projects that the UAE economy will contract by 3.9 per cent in 2026 and rebound by 7.7 per cent in 2027. The projection is in the Fund's October 2026 World Economic Outlook, titled Resilience Under Strain, Urgent Choices, presented at the IMF and World Bank Annual Meetings in Bangkok. Gulf News reports that the rebound is conditional on shipping routes normalising and the Strait of Hormuz reopening. The UAE grew 6.2 per cent in 2025, the fastest pace among the six Gulf Cooperation Council economies. The Fund expects Saudi Arabia to contract 3.3 per cent in 2026 and grow 7.9 per cent in 2027. For the wider Middle East and Central Asia region it forecasts a contraction of 0.3 per cent in 2026 followed by growth of 6.3 per cent in 2027. Global growth is put at 3.1 per cent in 2026 and 3.4 per cent in 2027.
In plain words
IMF International Monetary Fund — A United Nations family institution of 191 member countries that lends to members in balance of payments difficulty.
World Economic Outlook — The IMF's twice-yearly report of growth and inflation forecasts for the world and for individual countries.
GCC Gulf Cooperation Council — The six-member grouping of the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain and Oman.
Strait of Hormuz — The narrow sea passage between Oman and Iran through which much of the Gulf's oil is shipped.