IMF projects UAE economy to contract 3.9 per cent in 2026 and rebound 7.7 per cent in 2027 if Hormuz reopens
13 October 2026
The IMF's latest World Economic Outlook projects the UAE economy to contract by 3.9 per cent in 2026 and rebound at 7.7 per cent in 2027.
The rebound is conditional on shipping routes normalising and the Strait of Hormuz reopening.
The Middle East and North Africa region is the only region expected to contract in 2026, by an estimated 2 per cent.
Oman is the only GCC member forecast to grow in 2026, at 4.1 per cent.
The IMF projects global growth of 3.1 per cent in 2026 and 3.4 per cent in 2027.
IMF chief economist Silvana Tenreyro said the global economy has been resilient but that resilience is reaching its limits.
In plain words
IMF International Monetary Fund — The global lender whose World Economic Outlook gives twice-yearly growth forecasts.
Strait of Hormuz Waterway between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman — A key route for Gulf oil exports.