IMF raises 2026 global growth forecast to 3.1 per cent but warns the economy is nearing the limits of its resilience
13 October 2026
The IMF published its twice-yearly World Economic Outlook in Bangkok on Tuesday 13 October 2026, as the IMF and World Bank annual meetings opened.
It revised 2026 global growth up to 3.1 per cent from 3 per cent in its previous outlook.
It forecasts the Middle East and Central Asia to shrink 0.3 per cent in 2026, against growth of 1.9 per cent projected in April, citing disruption to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.
Kuwait, Iraq and Qatar face the deepest contractions: 16.7, 16 and 15.6 per cent.
It puts US growth at 2.3 per cent and China at 4.5 per cent.
Emergency oil stocks are low, and the IMF warns that without rebuilding buffers the global economy could soon test the limits of resilience.
In plain words
World Economic Outlook IMF's biannual forecast report — It projects growth and inflation for the world and for individual countries.
Strait of Hormuz Waterway between the Gulf of Oman and the Persian Gulf — In peacetime it carries about one-fifth of global oil supplies.