Office for Budget Responsibility puts UK net borrowing at 4.2 per cent of GDP in its Budget forecast

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Office for Budget Responsibility puts UK net borrowing at 4.2 per cent of GDP in its Budget forecast

30 October 2026

The Office for Budget Responsibility published its Economic and fiscal outlook for October 2026 on GOV.UK, and the forecast covers policies announced up to and including that month's Budget. The OBR is an independent body, and the Government's fiscal rules are tested against the numbers it produces. Public sector net borrowing is put at 4.2 per cent of GDP, or £133 billion, in the current financial year, falling to about 1.8 per cent of GDP, or £67 billion, by 2030-31. Public sector net debt stands at 96 per cent of GDP this year, peaks at 97 per cent in 2028-29 and comes back to 96 per cent by 2031-32. Real GDP growth is about 1¼ per cent in 2026 and about 1 per cent in 2027. CPI inflation is about 3½ per cent in 2027 and is expected to be back at 2 per cent by 2028.

Net borrowing this year: 4.2 per cent of GDP (£133 billion) Net borrowing by 2030-31: About 1.8 per cent of GDP (£67 billion) Debt peak: 97 per cent of GDP in 2028-29 GDP growth in 2027: About 1 per cent Inflation back at target: 2 per cent by 2028

Why it matters for exams: The Office for Budget Responsibility is the independent body whose Economic and fiscal outlook carries the United Kingdom's official forecasts for growth, inflation, borrowing and debt.

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30 October 2026 Source: GOV.UK (Office for Budget Responsibility)

In plain words

OBR Office for Budget Responsibility — The independent body that produces the United Kingdom's official economic and fiscal forecasts.

Economic and fiscal outlook Economic and fiscal outlook — The OBR's forecast document, published with the Budget.