Quieter cyclone season forecast for the South-West Indian Ocean as an exceptionally strong El Nino peaks

5 November 2026

The World Meteorological Organization has carried the seasonal outlook for the 2026-2027 South-West Indian Ocean cyclone season, issued by the Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre at La Reunion, which Meteo-France runs. The outlook puts the probability of a below-normal season at 70 per cent, with 6 to 10 named storms expected, of which 3 to 5 would reach tropical cyclone strength. An average season in this basin brings 10 named storms including 5 tropical cyclones, so the forecast is for roughly two-thirds of the usual count. Tropical Storm Agueda, which formed in October, is counted within the total. Forecasters attribute the quieter outlook to an exceptionally strong El Nino expected to peak in November or December 2026 and to last into early 2027, helped by a negative Subtropical Indian Ocean Dipole. Rainfall from November to January is expected to be above normal over Tanzania, northern Madagascar, Comoros and parts of Seychelles, and below normal over southern and central Mozambique and western Madagascar. Parts of South Africa and southern Madagascar are placed in the normal to below-normal band. The Mascarene Islands are expected to see near-normal rain to January and above-normal rain from February to April 2027.