South Asian Climate Outlook Forum expects below-normal winter rain over central and southern peninsular South Asia
19 October 2026
The World Meteorological Organization published the South Asian Climate Outlook Forum outlook for October to December.
Below-normal rainfall is likely across most of central and southern peninsular South Asia and some eastern areas.
Near-normal to above-normal rainfall is likely in northwestern South Asia, parts of the east and south, and the island nations.
Normal to above-normal maximum and minimum temperatures are likely across most of the region, which covers Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka.
The outlook reflects very strong El Nino conditions over the equatorial Pacific alongside neutral Indian Ocean Dipole conditions.
Experts from the national meteorological services of all nine South Asian countries prepared it, with input from the WMO Regional Climate Centre Pune and the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology among others.
In plain words
IOD Indian Ocean Dipole — The difference in sea-surface temperature between the western and eastern Indian Ocean, which shifts rainfall over South Asia and East Africa.