UN Environment Programme says global warming will breach 1.5 degrees Celsius

21 October 2026

The Emissions Gap Report 2026: The Point of Return, published by the United Nations Environment Programme, says global temperature rise is set to exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, and that countries must cut emissions urgently to minimise the overshoot and return below the threshold by the end of this century. The report outlines a lowest possible overshoot scenario in which peak warming by roughly mid-century is limited to 1.7 to 1.8 degrees Celsius. Achieving this requires cutting emissions by 18 per cent by the end of the decade, 45 per cent by 2035 and 69 per cent five years later, compared with 2025 levels. If current policies continue, warming could reach 2.8 degrees Celsius within this century. Even if all national climate action plans are delivered and similar efforts continue, warming will be limited to 2.6 degrees Celsius. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said in a message with the report that overshoot is not surrender. UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen said every additional fraction of a degree above 1.5 degrees Celsius increases climate impacts and risks.