UNEP's Emissions Gap Report 2026 says warming will pass 1.5°C but can be brought back by 2100
21 October 2026
The UN Environment Programme (UNEP) published the Emissions Gap Report 2026: The Point of Return on 21 October 2026.
It says the world will soon pass the 1.5°C warming limit and outlines a lowest overshoot scenario with peak warming of 1.7 to 1.8°C around mid-century.
That needs emissions cut by 18 per cent by the end of the decade, 45 per cent by 2035 and 69 per cent five years later, compared with 2025 levels.
Current policies could lead to 2.8°C of warming this century; full delivery of national pledges (NDCs) would limit it to 2.6°C.
The outlook is worse than last year's, partly because the United States withdrew from the Paris Agreement.
The second Global Stocktake begins at COP31 in Antalya, Türkiye.
In plain words
NDC Nationally Determined Contribution — A country's climate action plan submitted under the Paris Agreement.