WMO says El Nino is strengthening rapidly and could be one of the strongest since 1950
14 October 2026
The World Meteorological Organization said sea-surface temperatures show that El Nino is strengthening and is forecast to peak around December 2026.
Its Global Seasonal Climate Update for October to December 2026 draws on a consensus of 13 national and international centres.
Forecasts give a near-100 per cent likelihood that El Nino will persist through February 2027, and it could be one of the strongest events since at least 1950.
The Nino 3.4 sea-surface temperature anomaly was about +1.6 degrees Celsius in June 2026 and +2.5 degrees Celsius in August 2026.
For October to December 2026 the seasonal average is forecast at about +3.7 degrees Celsius, the highest since observations began. The previous record was +2.6 degrees Celsius from November 2015 to January 2016.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said El Nino is firmly established and strengthening rapidly.
The Indian Ocean Dipole is positive and is expected to peak in October, with an October to December anomaly of about +0.5 degrees Celsius.
In plain words
WMO World Meteorological Organization — The UN specialised agency for weather, climate and water, based in Geneva.
Nino 3.4 Nino 3.4 region — A box in the central equatorial Pacific whose sea-surface temperature anomaly is the standard measure of El Nino strength.
IOD Indian Ocean Dipole — The difference in sea-surface temperature between the western and eastern tropical Indian Ocean.