World Bank's Nigeria Development Update records 4.2 per cent growth in the first half and a 69 per cent real rise in federation revenues

8 October 2026

The World Bank released the October 2026 edition of its Nigeria Development Update in Abuja on 8 October 2026, with the special topic "Beyond the Federal Purse: How Higher Revenues Reshaped State Priorities". Real gross domestic product grew by 4.2 per cent in the first half of 2026, against 3.9 per cent and 3.5 per cent in the same periods of 2025 and 2024, and the report projects average growth of 4.4 per cent from 2026 to 2028. Gross federation revenues rose 69 per cent in real terms between 2023 and 2025, state revenues rose about 93 per cent in 2019 constant prices and state expenditures about 92 per cent, with the capital expenditure share rising from 46 per cent to 61 per cent. The current account surplus reached 12 billion dollars, or 7.1 per cent of GDP, in the first half of 2026, up from 8.6 billion dollars and 6.7 per cent of GDP a year earlier, and gross external reserves rose above 54 billion dollars in September. Headline inflation had fallen from 27.6 per cent in January 2025 to 15.2 per cent in December 2025, and the report expects it to decline gradually to about 12 per cent by 2028. The World Bank Country Director for Nigeria is Mathew Verghis.