IFAD puts the possible cost of El Nino to the world economy at up to 11 trillion dollars

9 November 2026

A new report by the International Fund for Agricultural Development says El Nino could cost the global economy up to 11 trillion dollars and damage food security. The report treats El Nino as one of several overlapping climate and economic shocks hitting small-scale food producers and rural economies. It notes that global energy and fertiliser shocks raised food system costs within a single planting season, from production through transport and distribution. IFAD President Alvaro Lario said resilience is not built by investing in single interventions. Its modelling puts a number on the difference. Where a farmer is given money help on its own, insurance for instance, the drop in farm income is held back by 9.8 per cent. Bring inputs, market access and money together and that figure roughly doubles, to 18.7 per cent, which is what counts when a drought and a price shock arrive in the same season. The report recommends bundled investments that give farmers access to markets, inputs, technologies and financial services including credit and weather insurance.