IMF says the world withstood the energy shock of the war on Iran better than feared, but emergency oil stocks are now depleted

13 October 2026

The International Monetary Fund published its twice-yearly World Economic Outlook on Tuesday in Bangkok, where the IMF and the World Bank are holding their annual meetings.
The Fund said global growth had withstood the Middle East conflict better than feared over the past six months, and that the rerouting of oil supplies away from the Strait of Hormuz and the release of strategic energy stocks had helped to contain the impact on oil prices from the United States-Iran war.
It warned that emergency stocks are now depleted, and that high debt levels and deficits in many countries could leave governments with little capacity to protect consumers from any future jump in prices.
"Without shoring up supply capacity and replenishing policy buffers, the global economy could soon test the limits of resilience," the report said.
The IMF revised its forecast for global growth this year up to 3.1 per cent, against 3 per cent in its July update, and left next year's forecast unchanged at 3.4 per cent.
Launching the report, the IMF's economic counsellor Silvana Tenreyro said "the global economy has been resilient, but that resilience is reaching its limits".
The IMF also said the economic fallout from the conflict remained "highly uncertain".