South-West Indian Ocean forum forecasts drought in the south and floods in the north as El Nino strengthens

1 October 2026

The strengthening El Nino is set to affect temperature, rainfall and tropical cyclone patterns across the South-West Indian Ocean region, the World Meteorological Organization said, publishing the outlook of the region's Climate Outlook Forum.
The outlook covers October to December 2026 and January to March 2027, and the forum urged governments and communities to prepare for multiple hazards rather than a single impact scenario.
It forecasts drier conditions and increased drought risk across the southern part of the region, particularly South Africa, southern and central Mozambique, Malawi and south-western Madagascar.
Wetter conditions and increased flood risk are expected across parts of the north, particularly Tanzania, northern Malawi, Seychelles and parts of the Mascarene Islands.
Above-normal temperatures are expected across the entire region, with a substantially increased likelihood of exceptionally high temperatures, while tropical cyclone activity for the basin overall is forecast to be below normal with tracks shifting southward.
The fifteenth session of the forum was hosted by the Seychelles Meteorological Agency from 15 to 17 September and also factored in the Indian Ocean Dipole, which has been moving from a neutral state towards a positive phase.