WMO says tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures may rise to 3.8 degrees above average in a strengthening El Nino

26 October 2026

The World Meteorological Organization has issued a Global Seasonal Climate Update covering November 2026 to January 2027, forecasting that sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific may rise to 3.8 degrees Celsius above average. An El Nino event is under way, which the WMO says could be unprecedented in strength and will peak towards the end of 2026, with impacts lasting longer. The WMO declares an El Nino when the anomaly in that region reaches 0.5 degrees Celsius. WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo set out the forecast, which was presented with the United Nations humanitarian leadership so that governments and humanitarian organisations can anticipate risks and prepare operations. The update points to wetter conditions in parts of East Africa, drier conditions in Southern Africa from November, heat and rainfall deficits in Southeast Asia, and above-normal rainfall in some parts of the Americas with higher drought risk in parts of Central America, the southern Caribbean and the Amazon. It states that these are seasonal outlooks, not predictions of individual events.