Lancet Commission lists 17 major threats to human health and warns nuclear conflict and malicious AI carry extinction risk

11 October 2026

The Lancet Commission on 21st Century Global Threats to Health has identified 17 major threats to human health over the next 75 years. It said malicious use of AI, including bioweapons, and nuclear conflict with nuclear famine carry risks of extinction, though their likelihood remains low. Other threats include air pollution, antimicrobial resistance, childhood malnutrition, climate breakdown and declining overseas aid. The commission measured each threat in disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Limiting global heating to about 1.8C rather than 4.4C could prevent 1.89bn years of healthy life being lost. Prof Christopher Murray, director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, co-chairs the commission, whose findings were to be shared at the World Health Summit in Berlin on Sunday, 11 October 2026.