Lancet Commission names 17 global threats to health to 2100, with malicious AI and nuclear conflict carrying extinction risk

11 October 2026

The Lancet Commission on 21st-century global threats to health presented its findings at the World Health Summit in Berlin. The Commission, of 37 experts, compared 17 threats from 2025 to 2100 across 204 countries and territories using disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). The threats range from 1.02 billion to 23.1 billion DALYs; COVID-19 caused about 500 million. Malicious use of AI, including for bioweapons, and nuclear conflict with nuclear famine were judged to carry risks of extinction in the next 75 years. Obesity has the largest cumulative expected amenable burden. Other threats listed include climate change, antimicrobial resistance and air pollution.