NASA satellites track what may be the strongest El Nino since 1950

15 October 2026

NASA says its satellites are tracking the 2026 El Nino, which the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration estimated in October 2026 has an 83 per cent chance of being the strongest since 1950. Eastern Pacific waters were about 3 degrees Fahrenheit, or 1.7 degrees Celsius, above the long term average, in a warm band stretching from the central Pacific to the coast of South America. Local sea levels rose by as much as 1 to 1.3 feet, or 30 to 40 cm, in some areas, while levels around Indonesia and northern Australia were 6 to 8 inches, or 15 to 20 cm, lower than normal. The first clue came in January 2026 with a Kelvin wave spotted near Micronesia, and by early April those waves had reached the eastern Pacific. Josh Willis, project scientist for sea level missions at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, said Kelvin waves are like the heartbeat of El Nino. The Sentinel-6 satellites measure ocean height every ten days, and this is the first El Nino observed by the PACE mission, launched in 2024, whose data show equatorial Pacific waters turning bluer as phytoplankton thin out.