Study of nearly 30,000 brain scans links the pace of cortical thinning to later teenage depression

21 October 2026

A preprint posted on bioRxiv on 11 October 2026 reports that the speed at which brain regions mature in early adolescence may forecast mental-health conditions up to four years before symptoms appear. The work draws on nearly 12,000 young people in the United States from the Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development study, which began around age nine, with nearly 30,000 magnetic resonance imaging scans over six years and annual parent surveys on mental-health symptoms. The authors report that cortical thinning follows an S-shaped curve, accelerating, then proceeding steadily, then slowing as a region nears maturity, and that sensory areas of the cortex mature first, followed by regions responsible for complex thought. The findings challenge the idea that psychiatric disorders stem from defects in specific brain circuits and suggest instead that vulnerability may involve disruption of the brain's developmental timeline, possibly set in motion by genes active before birth. Jacqueline Clauss, a child psychiatrist at the University of Iowa, Iowa City, is a co-author. Avram Holmes of Rutgers University, who was not involved, said the population-level patterns are subtle and cannot yet predict an individual child's trajectory. The preprint has not been peer reviewed.