Study projects dzuds almost every year in Mongolia from the mid-2030s and names overstocking as the main amplifier
23 September 2026
A study in the journal npj Sustainable Agriculture examines future dzud risk and pastoral pathways in the eastern Eurasian drylands.
Dzuds caused about 100.3 million sheep-unit deaths between 2000 and 2024, the largest single events being 26.6 million in 2000 to 2002, 25.5 million in 2010 and 23.8 million in 2023 to 2024.
Mongolia's livestock population grew from about 55 million sheep units in 1990 to about 110 million in 2024.
The authors project that dzud risk intensifies from the mid-2030s and that dzuds occur in nearly every year between 2036 and 2050.
Overstocking is identified as the main amplifier, with projected herds exceeding the rangeland carrying capacity of 103 million sheep units by more than twofold in the 2040s.
Pathways that lift the meat export share from 0.98 per cent of the livestock population to between 5.5 and 6.5 per cent by 2050 would cut dzud mortality by 63 to 91 per cent.
In plain words
Sheep unit Sheep unit — A standard measure that converts cattle, horses, camels and goats into sheep equivalents.
Carrying capacity Carrying capacity — The number of animals a pasture can feed without being degraded.
Pastoralism Pastoralism — A livelihood based on herding livestock across open rangeland.