WMO forum warns a strengthening El Nino will bring drought in the south and floods in the north of the South-West Indian Ocean region
8 October 2026
The World Meteorological Organization published the outlook of the Fifteenth South-West Indian Ocean Climate Outlook Forum on 1 October 2026.
The forum was hosted by the Seychelles Meteorological Agency from 15 to 17 September and covers October to December 2026 and January to March 2027.
Participating Members were Comoros, La Reunion, Madagascar, Malawi, Mauritius, Mozambique, Seychelles, South Africa and the United Republic of Tanzania.
The drivers considered were a strengthening El Nino, an Indian Ocean Dipole moving from neutral towards positive, and a Subtropical Indian Ocean Dipole moving from positive towards neutral.
South Africa, southern and central Mozambique, Malawi and south-western Madagascar are more likely to be drier, with higher drought and food-security risk.
Tanzania, northern Malawi, Seychelles and parts of the Mascarene Islands are more likely to be wetter, with flood and landslide risk.
Temperatures are expected to be above normal across the region, while tropical cyclone activity is expected to be below normal basin-wide with tracks shifting south.
In plain words
El Nino El Nino — The warm phase of the El Nino Southern Oscillation, marked by unusually warm water in the central and eastern tropical Pacific.
IOD Indian Ocean Dipole — The difference in sea surface temperature between the western and eastern tropical Indian Ocean.
WMO World Meteorological Organization — The UN agency for weather, climate and water, based in Geneva.